Příspěvky nebo odpovědi uživatele manipulační dělník Klídek

By Kirstin Ridley, European Telecoms Correspondent

LONDON, Nov 11 (Reuters) - UK-based mobile phone group O2 Plc <OOM.L> is expected to strike a more muted note when it posts results next Monday, as Spanish bidder Telefonica <TEF.MC> prepares its 17.7-billion-pound ($31 billion) offer document.

O2, which has been consistently topping market expectations by mainly targetting revenue and subscriber growth -- a strategy that analysts say has helped make it attractive to bidders --, is nevertheless forecast to report robust numbers.

Analysts have on average pencilled in half-year earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of 979 million pounds, a rise of about 15 percent on last year, on revenues up 11.5 percent at 3.598 billion pounds. The company has already forecast a broadly stable full-year UK EBITDA margin of about 30.2 percent and raised German margin forecasts to the low 20 percentage range. Telefonica, meanwhile, has promised investors a 1.54 pence half-year dividend. O2 paid a maiden final dividend for the last financial year of 2.25 pence.

Europe's sixth-largest mobile phone company, which was been dogged by bid speculation since it was demerged from British fixed-line group BT Group Plc <BT.L> in 2001, agreed to the 200 pence-per-share, all-cash Spanish bid last month.

O2's straight-talking Chief Executive Peter Erskine, who has won market respect for turning around and building fast-growing businesses in Britain, Germany and Ireland under an increasingly powerful brand, has been nominated to Telefonica's board of directors and key executive and management committees.

Some experts speculate that the former marketing executive might end up running Telefonica's European mobile assets. But other analysts believe that, like peers before him, he would find a switch to becoming a divisional head too tough.

"I don't think he'll stick around for more than a year," said one analyst, who declined to be named. "After you've been running a FTSE 100 company it's tough to become a regional director."

ENOUGH SCALE?

Under Erskine's stewardship investors have seen O2's shares surge, to touch a record high of 209p last month, after Telefonica's bid for one of the few digestible, independent European mobile phone operators triggered hopes of a bid war against the likes of German giant Deutsche Telekom <DTEGn.DE>.

But the stock has drifted to about 195 pence after the German company -- which took its own look at the business in August -- ruled out a counter bid on November 2.

Analysts believe no other bids are now likely to emerge, although one source familiar with negotiations has said Telefonica, which hopes to complete the takeover next January, still takes the threat of a counter-bid seriously.

But even without a rival bidder eyes are on Telefonica's next move to boost its size in Europe.

O2's UK business, one of the big four established network operators that include Vodafone Group Plc <VOD.L>, France Telecom's Orange <FTE.PA> and Deutsche Telekom's T-Mobile [TMOG.UL], has raised net service revenue growth forecasts to 6 to 9 percent for the full year.

And the company said in September its UK customer base had topped 15 million after clinching at least 400,000 new customers in the second quarter, helped by loyalty deals to reward and retain customers. But analysts say O2 needs to invest in its UK network to keep up with new services offered by rivals, while the Spanish bid does little to ease competition in a market in which about 10 mobile phone brands are battling for profits.

O2 Germany, meanwhile, is fast-growing and has overtaken Dutch-controlled rival E-Plus <KPN.AS> in terms of revenues. But it has just 9 million customers in a country with a population of about 82 million and stands far short of the twin might of market leaders Deutsche Telekom and Vodafone.

Following is a summary of analysts' forecasts:

HALF-YEAR EBITDA REVENUE DIV EPS

(MLN STG) (BLN STG) (P) (P) Average 979 3.598 1.54 4.61 High 1,014 3.611 n/a 4.8 Low 945 3.264 n/a 4.3 Year-ago 850 3.227 n/a 4.5 Number of estimates 8 8 8 8 ((Editing by Greg Mahlich; Reuters Messaging:

rm://kirstin.ridley.reuters.com@reuters.net;

e-mail:kirstin.ridley@reuters.com;

telephone: +44 207 542 7987)) ($1=.5717 Pound)

(Adds analyst comment, shares)

By Sonya Dowsett

MADRID, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Spanish telecoms giant Telefonica <TEF.MC> beat analysts' expectations with a 36.2 percent jump in nine-month profit on Friday and hiked its revenue-growth forecasts for the full year.

Fresh from surprising investors with a bid for British mobile firm O2 <OOM.L> in Europe's biggest-ever cash offer, Telefonica reported nine-month net profit of 3.25 billion euros ($3.83 billion) helped by strong currencies and acquisitions.

"Revenue growth within the domestic fixed wire business is a particular highlight, and at 5 percent is among the highest of the European incumbents," said Chris Alliott, analyst at Nomura investment bank.

Group net profit for the period was above an average forecast of 3.15 billion euros in a Reuters poll of 12 analysts.

The group said it expected full-year revenue growth to come in at more than 15 percent for the year, above the previous forecast range of 12 to 15 percent.

It also revised upwards revenue forecasts at its domestic fixed-line business, saying it now expected Grupo Telefonica de Espana's revenue growth to be above 4 percent, compared with a previous range of 0.5 to 2 percent.

Telefonica's share of its domestic fixed-line market is one of the highest in Europe.

Telefonica shares rose 0.6 percent to 12.60 euros by 0950 GMT, with gains capped as the shares went ex-dividend on Friday, trading without the right to the latest dividend payout.

O2 A DAMPENER?

Operating income before depreciation and amortisation (OIBDA) was 10.94 billion euros, up 20 percent on the same period last year, on income of 27.4 billion euros.

These figures were also slightly above analysts' average forecasts of 10.79 billion and 27.29 billion respectively.

Results were buoyed by contributions from the recent purchases of Czech operator Cesky <SPTTsp.PR> and BellSouth's <BLS.N> mobile assets in Latin America.

Strong currencies in Latin America, where Telefonica gleans nearly half its revenues, helped boost profits when converted into euros for the firm's accounts.

The Brazilian real, the Argentine peso and the Chilean peso have all appreciated against the euro in recent months.

Telefonica's 93-percent-owned mobile phone operator Telefonica Moviles <TEM.MC> posted profits ahead of forecasts last week as it expanded into Latin America and continued to gain clients in Spain.

The mobile phone business accounts for around half of the group's revenues.

Telefonica agreed a 17.7 billion pound ($30.96 billion) cash bid for O2 on October 31, a 22 percent premium to the mobile firm's share price before the news, in a move to break into the UK market and re-enter Germany.

But investors gave the deal a cold reception, questioning the strategy behind it and the price being paid, and Telefonica shares have fallen more than 5 percent since it announced the offer.

One analyst said the deal would continue to weigh on the stock, despite the group's strong results.

"We believe that Telefonica's performance in the short term will be more affected by the recent acquisition of O2 and the negative sentiment around it than by this set of results," said Luis Prota, analyst at Morgan Stanley. ((Editing by Quentin Bryar; Reuters Messaging: sonya.dowsett.reuters.com@reuters.net; 34 91 585 8328)) ($1=.8491 Euro) ($1=.5717 Pound)